Market Intel

Texas Market Update — September 2026

Texas Energy Market Update: September 2026

Updated September 23, 2026


Texas broke its all-time demand record this summer, and prices barely moved. Here's what happened, what's next, and what it means for your business.


  1. At a glance


  • 91,089 MW: new all-time ERCOT peak, set July 22, 2026

  • $378/MWh: highest real-time price on the record day (the prior record day hit the $5,000 cap)

  • $3.43/MMBtu: EIA's 2026 Henry Hub gas forecast

  • 474 GW: load waiting to connect to the grid, 90% of it data centres


  1. Record demand, calm prices


ERCOT set a new peak of 91,089 MW on July 22 (unofficial until final settlement), beating the 85,508 MW record from August 2023. The heat was sustained: every week from late July through late August beat the 2023 record for average weekly load.

Yet prices stayed calm. Day-ahead prices during the hottest stretch averaged only 15% above the rest of the summer, and ERCOT never had to ask Texans to conserve.


The reason is solar and batteries. Compared with the 2024 peak, solar output rose 12.7 GW at peak and battery discharge rose 8 GW in the evening.


Natural gas: well supplied heading into winter

The EIA forecasts Henry Hub gas averaging $3.43/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.28 in 2027. U.S. storage is expected to end October 5% above the five-year average, driven by strong Permian and Haynesville production.

Gas still sets the price of power in most hours, so ample supply supports competitive fixed-rate pricing.


  1. Data centre pause and new grid rules


On August 3, Governor Abbott ordered ERCOT and the PUCT to audit every data centre seeking to connect to the grid, pausing pending requests until each project passes. ERCOT aims to finish by December 10. On September 21, the governor extended the pause to state environmental permits.


On September 18, the PUCT adopted new interconnection standards for large loads, dropping a proposed non-refundable fee and setting a flat $100,000 study fee.

The pause delays demand. It doesn't cancel it. The EIA still expects Texas and its neighbours to lead U.S. electricity growth.


  1. Our take: what this means for your business


  • Summer risk is shrinking, but shifting. Solar and batteries now cap afternoon spikes. The remaining risk sits after sunset, when battery output fades.

  • Fall is a strong buying window. Healthy gas storage and a calm summer give buyers leverage on 2027 and beyond.

  • Long-term pressure is still building. Hundreds of gigawatts of new demand are waiting in line. Locking in multi-year terms before that load arrives is worth a look.


Want to know where your rate stands? Contact us for a free contract review.



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